Video: Navigating 2025 Market Volatility
Amidst recent market volatility, Brad Neuman's AI Avatar returns in this Breaking Views segment to highlight potential hidden opportunities for long-term investors.
AI Brad Neuman: In the 1986 Berkshire Hathaway Chairman’s Letter, Warren Buffett opined that it is wise “to be greedy only when others are fearful.” With recent market volatility owing to policy uncertainty and economic weakness, investor anxiety is heightened. But could this uncertainty be hinting at a hidden opportunity for long-term investors?
The American Association of Individual Investors conducts a weekly survey on investor sentiment. The proportion of investors identifying as bearish recently surged to 60.6%, nearly double the historical average.
The last time investors were this pessimistic was in September of 2022, when the Consumer Price Index reported an annual 8% inflation reading. At that time, the S&P 500 Index was trading below 3,800, setting the stage for a sustained bull market. From that point through the end of February 2025, the S&P 500 generated a cumulative total return of 70%1, partially catalyzed by the introduction of ChatGPT, which ignited strong enthusiasm for artificial intelligence.
Historically, when the survey has registered bearish investors greater than 60%, the average 12-month return has been 24%, indicating that long-term investors could be well served by taking a contrarian approach to the recent anxiety.
While it may be tempting to turn to “safe havens” such as cash or Treasury-Bills in times of volatility, this chart shows that the probability of equity returns outperforming treasury bills has historically been greatly enhanced as holding periods increase. Data over the past half century shows that equities have outperformed Treasury Bills 66% of the time over rolling quarters, 73% of the time over one-year periods, 90% of the time over 10-year periods, and 100% of the time over 20-year periods.
While market drawdowns can be difficult to endure, historical data supports the adage: it’s time in the market, not timing the market.
1The S&P 500 cumulative total return was calculated from 9/29/2022 through 2/28/2025. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
This video uses an AI generated avatar and was created using AI generative technology. As a result, it is not an exact replication of the speaker. The video content, however, was created by Alger.
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The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) provides education, research, and insights into market behavior. Its AAII Sentiment Survey gauges the market outlook of individual investors on a weekly basis and typically collects responses from around 500 individual investors. The survey asks participants to indicate whether they are bullish, neutral, or bearish on the market, offering a snapshot of investor sentiment.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers.
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